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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Most economists I was reading when trump put the tariffs on in April said those would happen as it worked through the supply chain most likely by Q4. He just started and paused it near the start of a month so there lagging data shows favorable. The larger companies had the cash flow to front load incoming inventory and the smaller companies got hit hard. Now that companies have burned through initial stock and tariffs are being figured for a 10-20% baseline instead of being removed completely prices will go up. No company is going to eat that much in additional cost and now that things are set companies will plan accordingly. Aug should see a rise in inflation since tariffs kicked in Aug 4 and you’ve already seen companies say prices will rise because of tariffs.





  • Tipped staff as a percent of the workforce is very small. If I read his proposal correct it’s tips anywhere rather than a specific industry as well. That means in my mind a lawyer could say this is my rate that’s really low and then I have an option for a Tip. While the tip has to be voluntary it would be hard for the IRS to prove if it was agreed upon prior. So it could be really manipulated rather than help a larger percentage of people. Simply raising minimum wage or expand the standard deduction would go further I’d think.