rn = 2.5 years ago.
It’s become even worse.
“3 trans?”
One in 400 people is shot every day? Yeah I’m gonna call BS on this one.
Maybe it’s just one guy getting shot so often it’s not even newsworthy anymore.
Gunshot Gary keeps shooting himself in the leg to build up an immunity.
Brett from Archer?
The room is located in a school
If I did the math right, for one person to be shot per day, we’re starting with a population of 10,440,000, not 400.
I worked the math out to be one person out of 400 shot to death either by murder or suicide every 17.12 years. Definitely not every 21 days, but it is still actually crazy when you think about just how few 400 people is.
That sounds about right. About 1 in 87 will die from suicide in general. 1 in 57 will OD. 1 in 6 from heart disease; 1 in 7 from cancer.
1 in 156 will kill themselves with a gun. 1 in 238 will be killed with a gun. (This includes FAFO deaths that could be prevented if people understood that a lethal threat justifies a lethal response.)
I don’t think it was trying to be factual, but more trying to make a point.
It’s not 3 times lower than that. It’s about 1 in a million, not 1 in 400. That’s 3 orders of magnitude less than the post claims. This is so hilariously wrong it undermines the credibility of the post.
Which is sad because all these points are really important things to draw attention to.
Over what time frame? Did you include gun facilitated suicides? And in general getting shot, doesn’t mean getting killed.
Yes, I included suicides and non-fatal injuries, and I used the same “daily” timeframe as the original post.
You’re focusing on the wrong part of the post. The point of the post is that despite all of these horrible (and for a lack of a better word, fixable) things going on in the world right now, people are wrongly focusing on trans people as a problem.
Also, there is such a thing as hyperbole, and it doesn’t mean that the point is invalid; instead it’s used to emphasize the point.
If someone can’t make an argument factually, they should not present it as if it’s actual science. This is not hyperbole, it’s lying.
Posts like this damage the message because it gives the right ammunition to say that we are liars.
Much better to be scientifically rigorous.
Not everything needs to meet scientific rigor. If that were the case, you would’ve provided me with at least three scientific studies demonstrating your side of the argument. But you didn’t, because it’s wholly unnecessary for a normal conversation.
No, not everything needs scientific rigor, but it’s a false equivalence to suggest we should tolerate blatant misinformation.
If that’s the hill you want to die on, that’s your prerogative, and I won’t fault you for it. I do disagree with you, but I also appreciate your time discussing this with me and challenging my assertions.
“Being blatantly wrong is fine, as long as you have good intentions.”
The average person in the USA only makes $140 per year. Well, it’s not really that bad, but it draws attention to wage inequity in the USA.
Unfortunately since it’s relying on numbers to make it’s point it would hit a lot harder if it was factual…
The point being that math is hard, and doesn’t care about feelings?
I wanted to look up the statistics for myself and see what the numbers are, given a room size scaled around 1 person dying from firearm related injury. I chose people dying from firearm injuries because I had a hard time finding a statistic for all people who were shot. If you are aware of better sources for my numbers (or a math error on my part), please let me know. I primarily used sources from the US government, but I recognize that those sources might not be completely transparent right now. Also, I don’t mean for this to undermine the intention of the author here. Every issue mentioned is absolutely a problem in america, regardless of arbitrary comparisons. Also also, transgender people are valid and deserve rights regardless of how many people are shot per year.
Say you’re in a room with 2,584,401 people. 206,752 don’t have insurance. 273,947 live in poverty. 542,724 are illiterate. 596,996 suffer from mental illness. And every day at least 1 person dies from firearm related injury. But 21,192 are trans so you decided ruining their lives is a priority.
The population of the US was 341,140,964 on 12/31/24.
92% had health insurance in 2024.
10.6% lived in poverty in 2024.
79% were literate in 2013. (Hopefully there is a more recent source for this somewhere)
I appreciate the effort to improve the methodology. But the numbers feel too big to be grasped easily, compared to the original.
Maybe the time frame can be changed? If we bump it to “1 person will be shot to death this year” it would make it a room full of 7080 people and 58 are trans
Edit: full data set rescaled
7080 - total
566 - no insurance
750 - poverty
1487 - illiterate
1635 - mentally ill
1 - gun death per year
58 - trans
Gotta measure stuff in hamburgers and school buses - 1972 model
I agree, that is absolutely a better representation of the data
Should be “206,752 with no insurance” in your original comment btw. Looks like you did 92% instead of 8%
Thanks! I fixed it
Thanks, I was stuck 330M americans… so almost a million get shot ever day (per the original)… that can’t be right
Fine but nobody would care. Alt right enjoyers are way too deeo into “religious” amok to even get touch with reality again, not to mention trying to talk to them with statistics. they just don’t care.
I appreciate you providing sources, genuinely, though I will point out the way the US officially measures poverty is laughable bullshit.
Yep, thats right, you live alone, and make or otherwise recieve more than $15.6k a year?
Not in poverty.
Also, the average paid rent in the US is ~1350 a month.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state
So… 1350 x 12 = 16,200, meaning a person below that is probably just literally homeless or nearly totally reliant on family or friends or the state for housing and food, as they have literally less than 0 money for food, on average, without some kind of assistance.
I would argue the actual US poverty line needs to be drawn at between where 200% and 300% of the current poverty line is.
That’s not how averages work. The average “poor” person is not paying anywhere near the average rent.
Oh, if you have more accurate and precise data, please do provide it.
I know this one dude who pays $200/mo rent, but like what stat do we need here? 10th percentile of rent? https://personalfinancedata.com/national-housing-cost-percentile/?housing_costs=400&housing_type=1#results I found this, which suggests that 10th percentile is very close to $500/mo
These results are based off of individual samples from the 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS) and are weighted to represent all American households; however, due to contrainsts in polling and weighting of the survey results there will be some deviations from reality.
So… yeah, this is not direct, actual direct rent data, its got who knows what kind of weighting manipulation going on, and its ~10 years old, and its spread out over a 5 year timeframe, instead of being specific to each year.
I appreciate the attempt though, really.
Like, I’m not trying to sound like an ass, I am an econometrician, it genuinely is difficult for a person to find high quality, freely available data on this topic that is not some kind of statistically or methodologically dubious.
Doing statistics well, properly, is indeed quite difficult.
If your data source ain’t great, neither are your conclusions, GIGO.
Anyway, broadly speaking, from 2015 to 2025, average and median US rent has something like doubled, and the other huge problem is that almost all the new apartments that have been built are all ‘luxury’ apartments, almost no one has built any affordable rental apartment housing in the last decade.
Indeed, if you look into what is even classified as an ‘affordable’ apartment, you will usually find that this means something like “rent is 1/3 of 80% of the Area Median Monthly Income”…and then you go look at the population income stats for that area, and you see that something like 20% to 40% of people in that area cannot afford that.
Meaning that ‘affordable’ apartments… aren’t, really.
Yeh TBF I didn’t look super hard for higher quality stats, but as you say, it’s hard to get data. Ideally you’d want something comprehensive you could run ad-hoc queries on, but I didn’t see anything like that 😅. I guess some subletting will be going on without any official paper trail, so the lower end of rent probably won’t be visible anywhere (e.g. renting from relatives) – I doubt there’s any way to collate that data at all…
Yeah lol, if you know one dude who is paying $200 for rent, in the US, he almost certainly has to not be legally on the lease, or at best, in some kind of run down old 5 bedroom house or something…
And he’d almost certainly also be in a very low CoL state or city.
Like uh, from what I can find, but also cannot source with total confidence…
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state
The cheapest studio apts in the country are around $650 a month, in like… Nebraska, slightly less in South Dakota.
The average cost rental price is $1325, but thats average for all areas, all kinds of apartments… my guess would be that average studio apt rent over the whole US is… about $950 - $1150?
I dunno, I’d have to pull in all their data sources and do my own calculations.
I cannot vouch for having personally validated the quality of these stats, but uh yeah.
And yeah, it is even more difficult to find actual data like this that also takes into account household size and income, all in one data set, also including and accounting things like all the varying kind of rent subsidies… so that you can actually do the income differentiation thing my original critic threw out as if this was trivial.
Also, its worth noting to my original comment… I did not include rent insurance, water, power, gas, other shit like pet rent, internet, phone, the fact that broke people likely have evictions from being broke and can thus functionally basically never rent again from the vast majority of landlords, they dont have the savings to put down a deposit and first months rent…
… and basically most of the funding that went toward gov and non profit rent assistance programs and pathway out of homelessness programs just got cut by the Trump admin.
Also, also: If data on a topic doesn’t exist, then, to privileged, data wonk type people… the problem doesn’t exist, is theoretical.
One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic, 10 or 50 million for whom we just don’t bother to adequately study is a reason for me to be dismissive of the notion that anything could be wronf.
Huh. So 45,625 killed by guns each year, about 1/10th of 1% but since people live longer than a year, I wonder what the lifetime risk is? Surely nowhere near risk of being killed by a car but probably much higher than the 1/10th of 1%.
How do you meassure untreated mental illness? Otherwise i like this reframimg a lot.
Is this really important? Feels like it’s missing the point. When communicating information compromises between factuality and bandwidth must be made. OOP gets the point across and has emotional impact. Even I didnt read half what you write. Nobody ever checks sources.
Nobody ever checks sources.
I don’t disagree, but it is a shame.
Right but being more technically correct does not make you a better communicator or more likely to be listened to. Creating approximately correct-ish ideas in the minds of your audience to counter absolute fictions is much more important unless youre in a lab or talking to an engineer about engineering.
Precision and rigor have negative rhetorical weight.
In a population of 400 people, 1 person is shot every day? So, by the end of one year, the population is down to 35 people?
If we extrapolate to the US population, we end up with 900,000 people murdered per day, or about 330 million people per year. That doesn’t seem quite right.
The actual statistic is more like one person out of the 400 getting shot every seven years.
Which is still pretty sobering.
The math is not the point here…
Are you sure? Based on their argument, I’d say “Mathematical Literacy” is the only priority we should have right now.
I’d say this shows exactly what’s wrong. People discussing the details (although important details), but the real issues are ignored, almost like the mistakes are made on purpose to sow discord
when one party makes fighting disinformation a priority instead of spreading it they shouldn’t be suprised when it spends time arguing against blainant disinformation.
It kind of is. The point of the analogy is to make the big numbers easier to grasp. If it’s just wrong, then are the other numbers even close?
That bit is a baldfaced lie. We OK with that?
The math is a pretty big point, seeing how the post focuses on how few trans people there are compared to the other mentioned groups (the figure for “people shot” is only 1 - but the post claims it happens every day)
Don’t worry, the fascists will be going after those with mental health issues next.
It’s already starting.
The room has a >91.25% annual shooting rate?
I don’t want to brag, but I’ve been living in the United States for 25 years and I haven’t been shot once. If the room resets annually, my odds to this point were 3.55x10^-27. Am I the last American?
“And the pedantic mathmeticians shall inherit the earth.”
😁
For every dead person a new one is born
deleted by creator
In other news, the Kirk Memorial was basically a Nuremberg rally.
Wheee yaah… this is not looking good.
EDIT:
I would describe this youtuber as an actual, genuine centrist, not a crypto nazi, got a lot of sensible ideas and some ignorant ones… I use him as a barometer for basically non brain poisoned normies who have a college degree and a functioning brain, but also come from a blue collar area and are … more culturally traditional.
Basically, a guy who is kinda problematic if you do a deep dive, but you could probably have a beer with and be reasonably good to ok friends with.
And he is in horror, reviewing Miller’s speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSYjqB_Q-8
The… original intent of his channel was a travel channel, showing people how US life compares to working and living overseas.
EDIT 2:
Large Man here missed this, but I will point out that Miller saying ‘We are the storm’ is an obvious Q Anon reference.
Like I said, he’s not internet brain poisoned enough to know.
It’s called scapgoating.
tbf, trans people are gross. Round them up and shoot them all for daring to live their life how they see fit, without harming anyone else. How dare they??
source: I’m a trans person.
meanwhile, dumpy mcshitpants is harming millions, even perhaps billions, on his micropenis hard on for fascism.
it’s not really about trans being bad moreso that they feel tremendous shame for being the largest consumers of trans porn. A lot of the men on the right are closeted as hell.
Not diagnosed, diagnosed, or self reported as mentally ill? Seems low.
Yeah, these numbers are all kinds of fucky
Err, that’s a nice little quip but that bit about shooting isn’t even remotely close to reality.
Example: There’s about 80,000 - 100,000 gun related injuries in the USA per year. That’s about 250 people getting shot each day. However, we are working against a population of ~330,000,000 in the USA. If you take the 100,000 / 333,000,000 = 0.0003. That’s 0.0003 per year per person. So the chance of a person getting shot in a year in the USA is about 1 in 3,330.
To look at this in another way, the fellow said there’s a group of 400 people and 1 is shot each day. That means in 1 year, nearly everyone in the room would have been shot, and in 2 years some people would be shot twice.
Look, the USA is pretty disgusting with some issues, but if you want to throw numbers around, at least make them accurate, otherwise it undermines the whole argument.
Ackshully
You don’t think it’s important to know the ACTUAL numbers when discussing issues?
If I said 50 million people were eaten by sharks each year and tried to convince my local town to ban swimming, don’t you think it’s important I get the number right?
The numbers presented in the original quote were basically off by 1000x. We’re not talking nit-picking here. It’s off by orders of magnitude.
sounds like battle royale from hell
48 in poverty seems low
85 being illiterate seems high
21% is pretty fuckin high
Unfortunately this is accurate. Half of adults in the US are unable to read past a sixth grade level. 20% are functionally illiterate.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/us-literacy-rates-by-state
How is that possible? People use the internet every day where you need to read constantly. Do those people live without any internet?
If you look at the data, it tells you about 1/3 of those who are illiterate comes from foreigners so that is not surprising. But the largest demographic of illiterates in the US is white people lol
Also they are functionally illiterate. It’s a wide encompassing term that ranges from people who can’t read English because they just moved here to people who can only read basic words like stop and go or words they encounter often in life but not much more than that.
I would imagine many people who are functionally illiterate just go to work, watch tv, and sleep.
